Westminster Views | rogergale

Westminster View

Summer 2025

In mid-June I was recalled to plug a gap as an Acting Deputy Speaker and once again found myself restricted by the chains of office until that appointment ended with the rise of the House for the Summer recess on July 23rd – hence this belated omnibus Westminster View embracing June, July and most of August.

While serving as an Acting Deputy Speaker, however, I had the privilege of helping to preside over some of the proceedings on the Assisted Dying Bill – one of the most sensitive but also most dignified debates that I have witnessed during my 42 years as a Member of the House of Commons.

With the arrival of June the summer sun promised brighter days, but for the body politic, the mood was decidedly overcast. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, in a split of 6–3, opted to hold the Bank Rate steady at 4.25 percent.

Yet headline growth masks a less sanguine reality. Reflecting the Chancellor`s increase in employers` National Insurance, payrolled employment has shrunk for a sixth month running—down 8,000 jobs in July alone—and vacancies plunged by 44,000, even as wages continued to rise at around 5 percent, all conspiring to keep inflation stubbornly elevated near 3.6 percent . And so, while GDP did beat forecasts, the cost-of-living crisis refuses to loosen its grip.

Into this bustle stepped Chancellor Rachel Reeves, unveiling an increasingly familiar refrain: the autumn Budget will prioritise productivity over populist tax-cut theatrics. Infrastructure investment and easing of planning restrictions were trumpeted as the means to repair Britain’s infamous productivity puzzle . But on the Government Front Bench a Chancellor visibly reduced to tears sent the markets into another, albeit brief, tailspin.

Seemingly more comfortable on the world stage than in a House of Commons where he never appears at ease, the Prime Minister’s increasingly visible hand in diplomacy has delivered at least one result. On 17 July, Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz signed the first UK–Germany treaty of its kind since the war: the Kensington Treaty, promising cooperation in defence, travel conveniences like German e-gates and visa-free school exchanges, and a cross-border rail link in ten years . Inevitably the die-hard Eurosceptics regard this as the thin end of a very dangerous pro-European wedge!

Foreign policy also turned a corner in the Middle East. In June, Britain imposed sanctions on Israeli hardliners Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich for incitement related to violence in the West Bank . By July, the decision to proscribe Palestine Action as a terrorist organisation triggered widespread outrage from UN experts and civil liberties advocates . Then in that same month, the UK joined 27 nations in condemning Israel’s obstructive aid model in Gaza and Starmer pledged to recognise Palestinian statehood at the UN unless a ceasefire and humanitarian access were established .

The situation in Gaza is beyond appalling. The 7th October attack by Hamas on innocent Israeli citizens, and the murder, rape and hostage- taking were barbaric and Israel had every right to retaliate and defend itself from further acts of terrorism. But what has been meted out by Netanyahu and his hard-line cronies is beyond anything proportionate. The man will, one hopes, be ultimately apprehended, and sentenced for war crimes but in the meantime the weaponization of food, water and medicine and the consequent death by starvation and thirst of innocent children has to be beyond the pale in any civilised society.

That is why the Father of the House and three other Privy Counsellors, of whom I was one, sought to deliver a letter to Number 10 calling on the Prime Minister to recognise the State of Palestine and to use every lever at his disposal to end the suffering of the people of Gaza. Extraordinarily we were denied access to Downing Street, but the groundswell of cross-party parliamentary and public opinion grew to the extent that Starmer had to listen and the U-turn that has become the hallmark of his administration followed.

From the White House the President of the United States launched into the summer with the imposition of a fresh round of `beautiful tariffs, starting with a 50% imposition on steel; fell only a little short of triggering a civil war in California; found himself further embroiled in the murky affairs of the paedophile Jeffrey Epstein; tacitly endorsed Israeli strikes on Iran - and still found time to make a golfing visit to Scotland where he was carefully shielded from the true voice of increasingly hostile public opinion. Mr. Trump is unlikely to find himself addressing both Houses of Parliament any time soon but of course all that could change with the outcome of his talks with European leaders, President Zelensky of Ukraine and ultimately with the dictator of the neo-Soviet Union, Mr Putin.

More of that in the next “View”.

Back on home turf, anti-immigration protests erupted in mid-July across towns and cities - from Epping to Liverpool - following the arrest of an asylum seeker with an alleged connection to a disturbing criminal case. What began as local disquiet has snowballed into organised marches, pickets, and confrontations, drawing in far-right groups and prompting at least nine police injuries and over 50 arrests . The government promised tougher border measures, faster asylum processing, and a pullback on hotel housing. Of course Farage and his and its acolytes interpret the unrest as vindication of warnings, which his critics have rightly said risk legitimising division and sowing further seeds of discord: fertile political ground for other populist extremists. I suspect that Starmer himself will forever live to regret his “Island of Strangers” speech that will haunt his political legacy.

What is certain is that where Farage has no practical policies to tackle the very real problem of illegal immigration, people trafficking and Starmer`s electoral promise to “smash the gangs” is in total disarray, the previous administration’s `Rwanda Plan` (a scheme for which I freely concede that I had no personal liking), begins to look like the only show in town. Imperfect and unattractive certainly, but the least worst of the options that have been proposed to date.

Let us not forget the cultural summer and a summer of sport. Oasis embarked on a five-month reunion tour, ending in August in Edinburgh, while Pulp’s new album More soared to No 1 - their first chart-topper since 1998 , The Edinburgh Festival Fringe lit up the capital of the north from 1st August and Torvill and Dean skated their final Bolero having taken to the ice to win gold with their iconic routine at the 1984 Olympics in Sarajevo And then there was the UEFA Women’s Euro 25 series of football matches.

I am an unashamed fan of women`s football. Although this tournament was more physical and more rugged than many, I find the women`s game more graceful, more attractive and generally more truly sporting than the prima-donna dominated male version of the game. So I tried to watch as many of the matches, including all of those in which the Lionesses featured, as time and work permitted. The end result was never inevitable. England gave away too many chances and were only there in the final, as we now know, by the skin of their teeth. But this was not just luck – although there was a fair helping of that commodity. It came down to raw courage, stickability, great management and a determination to hang in there and win until the job was done. They earned their cup the hard way but they deserved it. As someone might once have said: “The girls done well”.

You reach a time in life when the people around you start to fall off their perches. This Summer Suzy and I have lost a number that have been dear or near to us and the two best-known publicly of those were Margaret Thatcher`s `Bovver Boy`, Norman Tebbit and the producer of “Blue Peter” , Biddy Baxter.

Norman, the `Chingford Skinhead` , was one of the staunchest and toughest members of the Thatcher Cabinet . He served as the Secretary of State for Employment and the Secretary of State for Trade before becoming the Conservative Party Chairman. He came to campaign for me when I fought (and lost) a by-election in Birmingham Northfield in 1982 and we forged a friendship that lasted from that time on.

The former leader of the Airline Pilot`s Association, BALPA, was fiercely loyal to the Thatcher project with a mischievous twinkle in his eye and a wicked sense of humour. His career in the very frontline of British politics was shattered with the IRA bombing of the Grand Hotel in Brighton in October 1984, an event that left him seriously injured and his wife, Margaret, paralysed for life. He remained in the Cabinet until 1987 and then left to care for his wife, retiring from the House of Commons in 1992 when he joined the House of Lords as Baron Tebbit of Chingford.

The Matriarch of BBC Children`s Television, Biddy Baxter, transformed the “Blue Peter” programme into the household name that two generations of children grew up watching. Many of a certain age will remember the “elephant episode”. Fewer will recall the occasion when in an endeavour to plant, under the supervision of Percy Thrower, some Japanese flowering cherry trees at the BBC`s White City headquarters in the pouring rain (using studio cameras wholly unsuited to the task), the main gates of Television Centre had to be closed to permit this operation on `live` television.

The resulting traffic jam stretched from Shepherd`s Bush back through Notting Hill Gate towards Marble Arch. I was in the Director`s chair at the time and while the Commissioner of the Metropolitan police was not amused Biddy Baxter had ordered the exercise and what Biddy said that she wanted happened! She was autocratic and many found her impossible to work with but she created a programme that will live forever in many memories.

Back to Ukraine: on 14 August, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited No 10 to meet PM Starmer, discussing robust security guarantees and the PURL drone initiative - an outward sign that Britain remains resolved in its support for Ukraine even as global markets jittered amid inflation fears and tariff tensions . Sterling ticked up to a three-week high, but markets remained cautious as the twin spectres of inflation and underwhelming Labour data dawned ever more clearly on the horizon .

The `silly season` of 2025 has delivered its usual contradiction. Growth where few expected it; resilience in culture amid social strain; diplomacy moving forward - even while communities fractured. Starmer’s government has made gestures but the economic undercurrents remain unforgiving. As Chancellor Reeves prepares for the October reckoning, the questions are simple but stark: can Britain rebuild its economic credibility? And can politics retain its decorum while answering the public’s most pressing anxieties? Watch this space.